global economic factors 結果共5筆

Central Bank Governor Yang Chin-long predicts Taiwan’s inflation rate to drop to around 2% in 2024 due to expected international oil price decreases and modest service price increases. The Central Bank’s upcoming board meeting is anticipated to maintain the re-discount rate at 1.875%. Yang cites declining inflation rates and negative output gaps as key factors influencing the decision. Geopolitical conflicts and weather conditions pose uncertainties to Taiwan’s inflation trends.

Taiwan’s Finance Minister, Chuang Tsui-yun, projects that Taiwan’s total export value for this year will exceed US$400 billion, marking the third-highest record in Taiwan’s history. The nation’s exports for the first ten months of the year have already reached US$355.1 billion. Despite a slight decline in October, Taiwan’s export sector has shown signs of resilience, with positive growth in September. Chuang advises industry leaders and government departments to closely monitor global economic factors, such as inflation and the interest rate hike cycle, which may impact exports. Cautious optimism is emphasized for exports in the fourth quarter and beyond.

The Taiwan Research Institute (TRI) reports a decrease in electricity demand in September, following the end of the summer peak period for consumption. The TRI’s October Taiwan EPI shows a 0.16% growth in high voltage electricity usage across national industries compared to the same period in 2022. However, this growth is smaller than the increase seen in September. TRI President Wu Tsai-yi attributes the deceleration in economic growth to global inflation, interest rate hikes, and ongoing geopolitical crises. Despite these challenges, the domestic electronic technology industry has experienced successful inventory turnover due to the rise of AI applications, the launch of new consumer electronics, and stockpiling for the end-of-year shopping season. With sustained private consumption momentum and negative economic growth factors in the fourth quarter of 2022, a significant increase in economic growth to 4.4% is estimated for October. Wu predicts a gradual return to normalcy for global economic and business activities as the effects of inflation and interest rate increases diminish.

Taiwan’s Minister of Economic Affairs, Wang Mei-hua, expressed concerns about maintaining a 2% GDP growth rate this year despite signs of economic recovery. She cited external factors such as inflation, the Russia-Ukrainian war, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as global market influences. However, Wang emphasized that Taiwan’s innovation and efficiency are key advantages that can withstand external economic pressures. The National Development Council also reported a slight improvement in economic measures, indicating subtle growth amidst global adversity. Despite challenges, Taiwanese authorities and stakeholders remain cautiously optimistic and ready to leverage the nation’s inherent strengths.

Global inflation, soaring interest rates, the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian War, and the slowdown of China’s economy are leading factors in why Taiwan is seeing low export numbers in the 4th quarter of 2022.